The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals, AI, and Emerging Technologies: China’s Pursuit in Afghanistan

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Andiana Foundation.

The Material Foundation of the Digital Economy

Contemporary debates on emerging technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) tend to focus on algorithms, computing power, data, and innovation ecosystems. Yet beneath this increasingly digital narrative lies a fundamentally material reality: AI systems depend on complex global supply chains built on critical minerals and rare earth elements. As the global AI race intensifies, geopolitical rivalry is increasingly extending beyond semiconductor fabrication and software development to include access to the raw materials that underpin these technologies. Understanding the future of AI therefore requires looking not only at advances in computing but also at the strategic competition over the critical mineral resources that make those advances possible. This shift has elevated the sourcing of critical minerals into instruments of geoeconomic statecraft. States are increasingly compelled to secure access not only to chips and data, but to the raw materials that underpin the entire technological ecosystem. In this context, China’s global strategy reflects a structural awareness that technological leadership is constrained by material inputs. While much of the public discourse on AI focuses on semiconductors and large language models, Beijing’s approach increasingly reflects a parallel logic: securing long-term access to the mineral foundations of the digital economy. Accordingly, China has invested heavily in overseas mining projects while strengthening its domestic refining capacity, enabling it to maintain a dominant control in the processing of many of the world’s most strategically important minerals.

Afghanistan’s Hidden Mineral Wealth

Afghanistan occupies a marginal but revealing position in this emerging system. The country is widely estimated to hold between one and three trillion dollars in untapped mineral resources, including copper, lithium, iron ore, and rare earth elements. These resources are not merely economic assets; they are foundational inputs into electric vehicle batteries, semiconductor manufacturing, renewable energy storage systems, and advanced defense technologies. In other words, they sit at the base of the technological pyramid that also supports AI infrastructure. Afghanistan’s geological landscape suggests considerable natural resource potential. Afghanistan’s geological landscape suggests considerable natural resource potential. Although substantial mineral deposits and petroleum reserves have already been identified, much of the country’s resource base remains insufficiently explored and has yet to be fully assessed. In 2006, the United States Geological Survey and Naval Research Laboratory jointly conducted a series of airborne geophysical surveys across Afghanistan using magnetic, gravity, and hyperspectral imaging technologies to evaluate the country’s mineral potential. The surveys indicated that Afghanistan possesses significant untapped mineral resources, including an estimated 60 million metric tons of copper, 2.2 billion metric tons of iron ore, and approximately 1.4 million metric tons of rare earth elements, including lanthanum, cerium, and neodymium. They also identified substantial deposits of aluminum, gold, silver, zinc, mercury, and lithium. Among the most notable discoveries was the Khanneshin carbonatite deposit in Helmand Province, which is believed to contain rare earth elements with an estimated value of approximately US$89 billion. Despite this considerable resource endowment, Afghanistan remains a structurally underdeveloped resource economy, constrained by decades of conflict, weak governance, and inadequate infrastructure that have prevented the country from translating its geological wealth into sustained industrial production.

The Taliban’s Push for Foreign Investment

Following their return to power in 2021, the Taliban authorities made the development of Afghanistan’s mineral sector a central economic priority. In September 2023, they announced that they had signed new mining agreements valued at more than US$6.5 billion. Since then, they have reportedly awarded more than 200 mining contracts to over 150 domestic and foreign companies from countries across the region and beyond, including China, Qatar, Turkey, and Iran. Although the terms and implementation of these agreements remain largely undisclosed, China’s expanding involvement in Afghanistan’s mining sector has attracted particular attention because of its broader strategic and geopolitical implications.

Beijing’s Presence Post-2021

Since August 2021, China has emerged as one of the most consistent external actors engaging the new Afghan authorities. This engagement has been defined by early diplomatic positioning, cautious economic experimentation, and an emphasis on long-term strategic optionality. Beijing maintained its embassy in Kabul after its fall, appointed an ambassador under Taliban rule, and established working-level political and economic channels. This approach reflects a broader Chinese doctrine of pragmatic engagement without formal political recognition, aimed at preserving influence while avoiding entanglement in Afghanistan’s internal disputes. China is pursuing pragmatic engagement without formal political recognition, aimed at preserving influence while avoiding entanglement in Afghanistan’s internal disputes. The most significant dimension of China’s post-2021 engagement with Afghanistan has been its growing interest in the country’s mining sector. Chinese investment and commercial interest have focused on the above noted mineral resources. Among these, the Mes Aynak copper deposit in Logar Province remains China’s most prominent long-term investment. At the same time, increasing attention has been directed toward Afghanistan’s untapped lithium reserves, similarly crucial to global supply chains for digital and green energy ecosystems. Consequently, China’s interest in Afghanistan’s lithium resources extends beyond commercial mining opportunities and reflects Beijing’s broader strategy to strengthen its position in global critical mineral supply chains. In 2010, a United States Department of Defense assessment described Afghanistan as the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” while subsequent geological surveys conducted by the United States Geological Survey identified the country as a potential future source of significant lithium supplies. These surveys indicated that Afghanistan’s mountainous terrain may contain highquality lithium deposits, particularly in the northeastern provinces of Konar and Nuristan, where lithium-bearing rock formations were identified. Since the Taliban’s return to power, Chinese traders, investors, and intermediaries have increasingly explored opportunities to gain access to Afghanistan’s lithium resources by engaging with Taliban officials and pursuing prospective mining rights, a rush that has been described as “reminiscent of a 19th-century gold rush.” Reports of informal extraction networks, including allegations of lithium ore being smuggled from eastern Afghanistan through Pakistan into China, underscore both the commercial appeal of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth and the governance challenges surrounding its exploitation.

Strategic Hedging vs. Actual Extraction

Despite its expanding footprint, the empirical reality is that China’s material extraction from Afghanistan remains limited. There is currently no significant rare earth production, lithium development is still at an exploratory stage, and Afghanistan’s mineral exports to China remain negligible. In practice, China’s presence is more strategic than productive, characterized by geological surveys, investment proposals, infrastructure planning, and early-stage contractual engagement rather than largescale industrial extraction. China’s presence is more strategic than productive, characterized by geological surveys, investment proposals, infrastructure planning, and early-stage contractual engagement rather than largescale industrial extraction. This gap between strategic ambition and material output is central to understanding Beijing’s role in Afghanistan’s mineral sector. Chinese policymakers appear to view Afghanistan’s resources through a long-term strategic lens, recognizing that the country’s mineral potential cannot be realized without substantial investments in roads, railways, energy infrastructure, and mineral processing facilities. As one Chinese security expert observed, “Afghanistan lacks an industrial base, [but] they have great mineral resources, and no Westerners can compete with the Chinese when it comes to building infrastructure and tolerating hardship.” This perspective reflects Beijing’s broader approach: leveraging its expertise in infrastructure development and its willingness to operate in challenging environments to position itself for future access to Afghanistan’s critical mineral resources once commercial extraction becomes economically and politically viable. Similarly, Taliban officials have promoted ambitious proposals from Chinese firms, including a reported US$10 billion investment plan involving lithium processing facilities, battery production, infrastructure upgrades, and job creation. Although many of these projects remain at the proposal stage and their implementation timelines are uncertain, they demonstrate China’s expectation that Afghanistan’s mineral potential may become strategically valuable over the long term.

Eurasian Geopolitics and the AI Race

The rationale for this engagement lies in the broader structural dynamics of global AI competition. While China dominates the global refining and processing of rare earth elements and plays a central role in battery supply chains, it remains vulnerable to external geopolitical pressures, particularly United States-led export controls on advanced semiconductors and high-end computing technologies. In this context, diversifying upstream sources of critical minerals has become strategically important. Despite its instability, Afghanistan offers China an opportunity to expand its resource footprint beyond its established supply networks in Africa and Latin America. At the same time, Afghanistan is not simply an isolated resource frontier. It is embedded within China’s broader Eurasian geoeconomic architecture, including the Belt and Road Initiative and other regional connectivity strategies linking western China with Central Asia and Pakistan. Within this framework, minerals are not merely commodities but components of a broader infrastructure, logistics, and security network. Resource access, transport corridors, and political influence are increasingly interlinked, reflecting a shift toward integrated geoeconomic statecraft. China’s engagement in Afghanistan therefore reflects a form of strategic hedging rather than an immediate economic transformation. It represents an effort to position itself within a future-oriented resource landscape while recognizing that current conditions do not yet support largescale extraction. In this sense, Afghanistan functions less as a present-day contributor to China’s technology and AI capabilities than as a long-term strategic option within a highly uncertain geopolitical environment. The AI race is being contested not only in research laboratories and semiconductor fabrication plants, but also in mining regions, fragile states, and contested peripheries. The AI race is being contested not only in research laboratories and semiconductor fabrication plants, but also in mining regions, fragile states, and contested peripheries. Afghanistan sits at the intersection of these dynamics, not as a decisive player, but as a strategically significant one, illustrating how future technological power is increasingly shaped by the material constraints of the present.

The AI race is being contested not only in research laboratories and semiconductor fabrication plants, but also in mining regions, fragile states, and contested peripheries.

The AI race is being contested not only in research laboratories and semiconductor fabrication plants, but also in mining regions, fragile states, and contested peripheries. Afghanistan sits at the intersection of these dynamics, not as a decisive player, but as a strategically significant one, illustrating how future technological power is increasingly shaped by the material constraints of the present.

The author of this blog confirms that neither the contents of the blog nor the grammar and editorial revision of the blog were produced by any artificial intelligence chatbot.

Mustafa Aryan is an international security professional and current President of the Canadian International Council (Toronto Branch). He previously served as Director of International Affairs for Afghanistan’s High Council for National Reconciliation. A Salzburg Global Fellow with a master’s in International Security from the University of Reading, he has completed executive training at Harvard and the US National Defense University.

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