A Regional Mechanism for Principled Security in Afghanistan, South and Central Asia
- 5 days ago
- 4 min read
Since the fall of the Afghan Republic in 2021, it has been made clear that neighboring states
want to solve a range of longstanding problems that have been exacerbated by the Taliban
rule. Pronouncements on the need for stability in Afghanistan and the resolution of ongoing
concerns about international crime and terrorism, water rights, and migration flows come
frequently from regional groupings such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Central
Asia C5 group, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, as well as larger groups – such as
the Organization of Islamic Cooperation – of which these nations are also members.
What is needed is a region-wide strategy and the creation of a new South and Central
Asia mechanism for principled security. This mechanism should be designed and
empowered to actively engage key stakeholders in efforts to prevent conflict and foster
lasting stability within the tenets of international human rights law, not only within
Afghanistan but across the wider region.
The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan did not resolve historical security concerns;
instead, it further intensified regional insecurity. The evolving nature of security challenges
emerging from Afghanistan has deepened mistrust between the Taliban authorities and
neighboring states. The Taliban takeover has emboldened various jihadist and terrorist
groups operating across the region. The terror groups such as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan
(TTP) and Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) have expanded and reorganized their
activities throughout Pakistan and other neighboring countries. The Taliban authorities in
Afghanistan have also been accused of providing sanctuary to extremist groups, including
Al-Qaeda and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. At the same time, China and the Central Asian
countries have continuously expressed concern over the spillover effects of insecurity
originating from Afghanistan, particularly the growing threats associated with the presence
of militant and extremist groups operating within Afghan territory. These concerns
have intensified since the return of the Taliban to power, as neighboring states fear that
instability in Afghanistan could undermine regional security and border stability. In addition to these security concerns, the Taliban’s limited governing capacity and inability
to establish effective state institutions have hindered progress in addressing broader
transnational challenges. These challenges include persistent border tensions, disputes
over water resources, irregular migration flows, and the worsening refugee crisis affecting
neighboring countries. Furthermore, weak governance and the absence of comprehensive
regional cooperation mechanisms have complicated efforts to combat cross-border crime,
drug trafficking, and violent extremism.
Different regional nations have adopted ad hoc approaches that tend to give the Taliban
undue leverage. Central Asian republics mostly engage Afghanistan bilaterally, prioritizing
economic development and infrastructure projects, and pushing back on migrant flows and
the Taliban’s extremist religious rhetoric. The major geopolitical players in the area, China
and Russia, pursue their interests in counter-terrorism, trade, and extractive industries,
offering the Taliban leadership political recognition with no concessions. Meanwhile,
South Asian rivals India and Pakistan have viewed Afghanistan through their own lens of
competition, with a “race to the bottom” approach: appeasing the Taliban in an effort to box
out the other country.
Without the establishment of a long-term security and peace architecture, however,
Afghanistan’s neighbors are living on borrowed time. Pakistan’s hostility to the Taliban
over its harboring of TPP insurgents (and the group’s growing closeness to India) has
escalated to open war. Other significant conflict drivers – water scarcity and climate change,
migration, and support for regional and international terrorist groups – are continuing
to pit nations against each other. Meanwhile, the unchecked extremism of the Taliban,
superficially managed by wary neighbors, has resulted in thousands of new graduates from
“Jihadi” madrassas in Afghanistan every year.
To gain a clearer understanding of the security crises in South and Central Asia, particularly
the transnational security challenges affecting the wider region, and to examine the
implications of the Taliban regime for Afghanistan and its neighboring countries, the
Andiana Foundation initiated a series of Track 2 dialogues and consultations involving
representatives from South and Central Asia as well as Afghanistan.
The consultations found that the interconnected security challenges facing countries in the
region, together with the rise of transnational security threats following the Taliban’s return
to power in Afghanistan, have created an urgent need for regional cooperation. The Track
2 dialogues highlighted the importance of establishing a structured regional platform to
address both emerging and existing security crises.
Experts have called for a mechanism that should zero in on conflict prevention and management and be fully regional, ensuring ownership, continuity and predictability.
This could attach itself to the SCO, the most appropriate over-arching platform, or be a
separate entity that is supported by the United Nations. Key principles should include
the establishment of an inclusive, legitimate government in Afghanistan that rejects the
use of its territory for terrorism. The countries that should be included are the five Central
Asia nations, plus China, India, Iran and Pakistan. Eventually, a legitimate Afghanistan
government should become a full member; until then, unaffiliated Afghan experts should
be active participants.
To balance the need for consultation and decision-making, this proposed mechanism
should have both summit (Heads of Government or ministers) and expert components.
There should be thematic working groups that use both Track II and Track I (formal
diplomacy) formats to flesh out ideas for regional solutions to key conflict drivers, that
would have to be adopted at a political level. Proposed cooperation and problem-solving
should focus on water, energy, connectivity, trade corridors, disaster reduction, counter-
narcotics, counter-extremism, and actions against militants who threaten cross-border
stability. To enforce agreements, the mechanism would use non-military tools such as
economic reciprocity, verification mechanisms, legal enforcement via binding arbitration,
and diplomatic dispute resolution.
Afghanistan and its neighbors face complex issues that will only worsen over time, unless
addressed systemically and within the framework of international human rights principles.
Long-term stability is possible, and it is essential for economic growth and the ability of the
people in Afghanistan, South and Central Asia to have a brighter future.
Nilofar Sakhi is a peace and security scholar with expertise in regional security and peacemaking. She is the President of Andiana Foundation and an associate research professor at Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University.
Annie Pforzheimer is a retired senior U.S. diplomat. She is an adjunct professor of international relations at the City University of New York and Pace University, and a consultant, researcher, and public commentator on the U.S. foreign policy.
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